The Commission, however, maintained its forecast for 2.5% economic growth in the country next year in its Spring 2026 Economic Forecast
“Following an expansion of 3.4% in 2025, Croatia’s GDP growth, still supported by private consumption and investment, is expected to moderate to 2.7% in 2026 under higher price pressures and heightened uncertainty,” the Commission said. “The conflict in the Middle East and heightened geopolitical tensions are expected to weigh on the outlook, dampening mostly domestic demand.”
The Commission expects that Croatia’s economic growth will soften further to 2.5% in 2027 following a further weakening of domestic demand growth.
After reaching 1.5% in 2025, GDP growth in the European Union is now projected to slow down to 1.1% this year, 0.3 percentage points lower than in the Autumn 2025 Forecast, while inflation is expected to rise to 3.1%, an upward revision of a full percentage point compared to the Autumn 2025 Forecast.
Croatia’s inflation is expected to increase in 2026 to 4.6% from 4.4% last year, but to decline to 2.7% in 2027.
After increasing to 3.0% of GDP in 2025, the Croatian general government deficit is projected to gradually narrow, to 2.9% this year and 2.7% in 2027.
The Adriatic country’s debt to GDP ratio is foreseen to moderately decline, underpinned by a strong nominal growth, the Commission also said.
